Global waste generation is projected to increase dramatically over the coming decades, driven by urbanisation, population growth and economic development, according to the World Bank’s What a Waste research programme.
The latest analysis indicates that the world currently produces more than 2 billion tonnes of municipal solid waste each year. Without significant intervention, this figure is expected to rise by around 70% by 2050.
The report highlights that waste generation is not evenly distributed across regions or income levels. High-income countries, despite accounting for a relatively small share of the global population, produce a disproportionately large volume of waste. Meanwhile, the fastest growth is projected in lower-income regions.
Sub-Saharan Africa is expected to see waste volumes more than triple by mid-century, while South Asia is forecast to more than double its waste output.
This growth is closely linked to economic development and urbanisation. As countries industrialise and incomes rise, waste generation typically increases alongside consumption patterns.
Gaps in waste management systems
Despite rising volumes, waste management systems remain uneven in their effectiveness. The World Bank estimates that at least one-third of global waste is not managed in an environmentally safe way, often ending up in open dumps or being burned.
Collection and treatment rates vary widely. High-income countries generally achieve near-universal waste collection and recover a significant proportion through recycling and composting. In contrast, low-income countries recycle only a small fraction of their waste, with limited collection coverage, particularly in rural areas.
Environmental and health impacts
Poor waste management has significant environmental and public health consequences. Mismanaged waste contributes to pollution of land and waterways and is a growing source of greenhouse gas emissions.
The report estimates that waste treatment and disposal generated approximately 1.6 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent in 2016, accounting for around 5% of global emissions.
Plastics are identified as a particular concern, persisting in ecosystems for hundreds of years and contributing heavily to marine pollution.
Economic and policy implications
The World Bank emphasises that effective waste management is a foundational public service and a key component of sustainable urban development. It also plays a central role in enabling a circular economy, where materials are reused and recycled rather than discarded.
However, the report notes that waste management is often under-prioritised, particularly in lower-income countries where infrastructure, financing and governance systems are less developed.
The findings underline the need for coordinated policy action, investment in infrastructure, and improved regulatory frameworks to manage growing waste volumes and reduce environmental impacts.
A growing global challenge
The What a Waste programme compiles data from countries and cities worldwide, covering the full waste management chain—from generation and collection to treatment and disposal.
Overall, the report concludes that without systemic changes, rising waste generation will continue to outpace improvements in management, placing increasing pressure on cities, ecosystems and public health systems globally.