Defra modelling says Simpler Recycling, packaging extended producer responsibility and the Deposit Return Scheme will deliver less than a third of the reduction needed to halve residual waste per person in England, excluding major mineral wastes.
England’s flagship collection and packaging reforms are expected to achieve just 31% of the reduction in residual waste needed to meet the government’s statutory 2042 target.
The government’s updated residual waste reduction delivery plan says Simpler Recycling, extended producer responsibility for packaging (pEPR) and the Deposit Return Scheme (DRS) will collectively deliver “just under a third” of the required reduction.
Defra says additional policies beyond these reforms will be needed to close the remaining gap. These will be informed by the delayed Circular Economy Growth Plan and the department’s wider circular economy programme.
The delivery plan estimates that the three reforms will provide between 90% and 100% of the reductions required to meet England’s interim 2030 targets, depending on the specific target.
However, the plan still lists March 2027 as the deadline for introducing plastic-film collections. Defra confirmed in the same week that mandatory collections of plastic films and flexible packaging would be delayed until April 2030.
It is therefore unclear whether the modelling has been revised to reflect the delay, particularly the estimate that the reforms will deliver up to 100% of the reductions required for the 2030 interim targets.
Residual waste falls 6.9% per person
Defra’s new Environmental Improvement Plan annual progress report estimates England generated 31.4 million tonnes of residual waste, excluding major mineral wastes, in 2024.
This was 2.6% lower than in 2023 and 3% below the 2019 baseline.
On a per-person basis, residual waste fell from 575kg in 2019 to 535kg in 2024, representing a reduction of 6.9%.
The government has committed to reducing this to 287kg per person by 2042, which is broadly equivalent to a 50% reduction from 2019 levels.
An interim target requires residual waste to fall to no more than 437kg per person by December 2030. This means a further reduction of 98kg per person is required from the latest reported level.
Municipal residual waste totalled 26.1 million tonnes in 2024, virtually unchanged from the previous year. This was equivalent to 445kg per person, down 5.1% compared with 2019.
Defra said the latest figures predate the introduction of its main collection and packaging reforms.
Packaging EPR was introduced from April 2025, while the Simpler Recycling requirements for households took effect on 31 March 2026, subject to transitional arrangements for some local authorities.
The department said it expects waste levels to fall “significantly” over the next few years as the reforms take effect.
Waste has highest proportion of off-track actions
Waste had the highest proportion of off-track supporting actions across the ten goals in the Environmental Improvement Plan.
Of the 13 actions supporting the waste goal, 31% had been completed, 54% were in progress and 15% were classified as off track as of March 2026.
The two off-track actions relate to the government’s ambition to achieve the near-elimination of biodegradable municipal and non-municipal waste sent to landfill from 2028.
Defra said it is not currently proposing a ban on biodegradable waste going to landfill. It is instead working with the Treasury to ensure the Landfill Tax continues to encourage diversion while developing further policy options.
The department said it is also considering how the expansion of the UK Emissions Trading Scheme to energy-from-waste could influence the diversion of biodegradable materials from landfill.
Circular Economy Growth Plan remains unpublished
Defra’s delivery plan says further measures will be needed beyond Simpler Recycling, pEPR and DRS to meet the 2042 statutory target.
These policies are expected to be informed by the Circular Economy Growth Plan, which missed its early 2026 publication milestone.
The government said in June that it intended to publish the plan “soon” but did not provide a firm date. The new progress report says the plan is being finalised and will be published “shortly”.
Defra said it will only be able to assess the anticipated impact of further waste-reduction policies after the plan is published.
While the department expects its current reforms to put the interim targets within reach, its modelling shows that most of the reduction required by 2042 must come from policies that have yet to be set out.