Higher packaging waste recycling note (PRN) prices are associated with a greater share of material being exported for recycling, according to research published by Alupro, providing historical context for government intervention in the market.
The analysis covers 2013–2025 and found that aluminium was the only material studied for which higher prices were associated with both falling domestic reprocessing tonnages and rising exports. It does not assess the effects of the 2026 regulatory changes or the recent intervention.
The findings come amid Defra’s intervention in PRN markets over concerns about potential shortages of recycling evidence, which could leave producers unable to meet their full recycling obligations for 2026.
In England, the Environment Agency’s regulatory position statement says it will not normally take enforcement action where producers and compliance schemes meet specified conditions, including securing at least 83% of their statutory obligation for plastic, 92% for steel and 90% for wood.
The concessions apply only to the 2026 compliance year. The statement leaves legal recycling obligations unchanged, and full obligations continue to apply to other materials, including aluminium.
“Rather than supporting or dismissing PRNs, we’ve simply collated a factual base of evidence to better understand the scheme’s performance over the past decade”
Alupro’s review examines 156 monthly observations across seven material types from January 2013 to December 2025 — a 13-year period. It tracks domestic reprocessing and exports separately, accounting for factors including economic activity, energy costs, recycling targets and seasonality.
Across six of the seven material types, higher PRN prices were significantly associated with higher long-term recorded recycling tonnages. Plastic showed the greatest price sensitivity.
Higher prices were also associated with an increased export share for aluminium, glass re-melt, paper and board, and plastic, according to Alupro’s published findings.
Alupro suggests exports may act as a “release valve” when recycling targets are under pressure and domestic facilities cannot respond quickly. The statistical associations do not, by themselves, establish that price increases caused the changes or that domestic capacity constraints explain the export shift.
For aluminium, the analysis also found different relationships depending on whether prices rose or fell. Price increases were significantly associated with higher overall tonnages, while decreases showed no statistically significant association. Alupro interprets this as suggesting that gains may persist after prices fall.
The review found that prices generally responded to evidence availability for six of the seven materials, with surpluses associated with lower prices and shortfalls with higher prices. Some volatility remained unexplained.
Stephen Devine, Alupro’s membership and business development manager, said the organisation wanted to examine the relationship between prices and recycling tonnages.
“Rather than supporting or dismissing PRNs, we’ve simply collated a factual base of evidence to better understand the scheme’s performance over the past decade,” he said.
Alupro said it hoped the research would provide an evidence base for consultations on future reforms of the PRN system.
